´¡³Ü²õ³Ù°ù²¹±ô¾±²¹¡¯²õ proposal to cap overseas enrolments risks fuelling a wave of would-be migrants while making international student flows susceptible to ministerial whims, experts say.

Christopher Ziguras, director of the University of Melbourne¡¯s Centre for the Study of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø, warned of unintended consequences from the government¡¯s plan to favour courses in certain disciplines.

¡°[The] push to align international enrolments with Australian skill needs is going to end in tears,¡± Professor Ziguras said. ¡°If it works, you¡¯re going to have a much bigger number of international graduates expecting permanent residency, and those numbers are pretty quickly going to swamp the intake targets for the migration programme.¡±

He said a ¡°huge boom¡± in accountancy enrolments in the early 2000s, and in cooking and hairdressing courses later that decade, illustrated the dangers. ¡°Enrolments tend to surge in programmes that lead most easily into permanent residency. That¡¯s happened a number of times in different fields and [is] likely to happen again,¡± Professor Ziguras said.

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Newly drafted legislation empowers the education minister to exempt courses ¡°addressing ´¡³Ü²õ³Ù°ù²¹±ô¾±²¹¡¯²õ critical skill needs, such as teaching and nursing¡±, from proposed institutional caps. The minister could also cancel courses that ¡°provide limited value to ´¡³Ü²õ³Ù°ù²¹±ô¾±²¹¡¯²õ skills and training needs and priorities¡±, or because they lack quality or are not ¡°in the public interest¡±.

The enrolment caps could take many forms, according to the bill¡¯s 177-page . They could apply to individual courses, ¡°classes¡± of courses or entire institutions.

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Universities and colleges could face simultaneous caps on their total enrolments and enrolments within multiple courses. The caps could also apply to ¡°classes¡± of institutions ¨C for example, all institutions in particular cities, all newly registered colleges or all public universities.

If institutions exceed their caps, the relevant courses ¨C or potentially all of their courses ¨C could be deregistered.

The document also suggests an intent to apply a system-wide cap on international enrolments. ¡°The allocation of student visas for overseas students will be limited and competitive amongst applicants¡­[so] that¡­enrolments are allocated beneficially for ´¡³Ü²õ³Ù°ù²¹±ô¾±²¹¡¯²õ interest,¡± it says. ¡°These provisions give flexibility to the minister to make an instrument that will appropriately reflect the government¡¯s policy objectives at any given time.¡±

Introducing the bill into parliament, education minister Jason Clare stressed the need to administer international education ¡°carefully¡± to protect it from ¡°bad actors¡± and ¡°deliver sustainable growth¡±.

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¡°We have to ensure that we manage the international education industry in a way that delivers the greatest benefit to Australia, whilst maintaining its social licence from the Australian people,¡± he said.

¡°This is shockingly bad legislation,¡± Australian National University policy expert Andrew Norton said. ¡°It goes well beyond what is needed to keep international student numbers down to manageable levels. It disregards both the interests of international students and the autonomy of higher education providers.¡±

Professor Norton said the proposals would produce a ¡°much larger decline¡± than the enrolment caps suggested. International students would not enrol in courses that did not match their career plans, while universities risking suspension of their course registrations would be ¡°very conservative¡± in offering places.

Professor Ziguras said the proposals gave the minister a great deal of discretionary power. ¡°It makes the planning of institutions and students much more susceptible to the whims of the individual who holds that position in the future.¡±

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com