Scientists have lost some public trust by ¡°overselling¡± the potential impact of their work under pressure from policymakers and ordinary people to provide certainty about where research will lead, a leading thinker on science has warned.

Helga Nowotny is the former president of the European Research Council (ERC), a prolific writer on the practice of science, and author of a new book, The Cunning of Uncertainty.

It urges politicians to embrace long-term scientific inquiry with potentially huge, yet uncertain, results, rather than merely focusing on smaller, short-term and more controllable advances.

Asked for the book¡¯s main message to policymakers, Professor Nowotny, who is?professor emeritus in social studies of science at ETH Zurich ¨C Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich,?told Times ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø that it is crucial ¡°to foster better understanding in the general public that there is no absolute certainty¡±.

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Politicians ask for scientific certainty because they perceive this is what the media and public demand, she said.

But such questions ¨C for example, whether or not something is carcinogenic ¨C are ¡°something that nobody can answer¡± definitively, she argued, and can be spoken about only in terms of probabilities.

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Asked whether scientists have lost public trust, Professor Nowotny agreed that they have, ¡°in the sense where you make these oversold promises ¨C ¡®we will find a cure for whatever in the next couple of years¡¯¡±.

This ¡°overselling¡± is not due to deliberate deception, but because scientists have ¡°internalised¡± the demands for certainty from research councils, who are in turn responding to the expectations of government and the public.

¡°In the end you lose trust because you cannot actually deliver,¡± she said. Instead of providing detailed timelines, scientists should say ¡°we are working on that¡±, she advised.

Asked if such an approach may have pitfalls ¨C such as those detailed in the 2010 book Merchants of Doubt,?when vested interests sow the seeds of scientific doubt as a way of forestalling action on issues like the harm caused by cigarettes or, more recently, climate change ¨C she responded: ¡°You cannot deny climate change; it¡¯s happening. The scientific evidence is overwhelming.¡±

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But she pointed out that modelling future changes to the climate is fraught with uncertainty, with climate forecasting broadly as accurate as weather forecasting was 100 years ago ¨C although none of this should be used as an excuse for inaction.

Professor Nowotny also voiced concerns that the current peer review system is ¡°bursting at its seams¡± because of overstretched reviewers.

Drawing on her experience as president of the ERC from 2010 to 2013, she added that ¡°there is a problem there, as people are overburdened. What¡¯s in it for them [reviewers] is not that much¡±, although she stressed that sitting on ERC panels was still popular.

She stopped short of calling for a wholesale overhaul of the present peer review system. ¡°It¡¯s like with democracy;?we have no better system,¡± she said. ¡°It¡¯s the least worst system.¡±

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But Professor Nowotny urged scientists to try other methods, such as alternative metrics to measure research impact, open access and post-publication peer review. ¡°The solution is not obvious¡­I think it¡¯s good that we experiment,¡± she said.?

david.matthews@tesglobal.com